La OPEP y sus aliados, liderados por Rusia, celebran hoy una videoconferencia para evaluar si la volátil situación del mercado mundial de crudo requiere un reajuste de sus planes de producción, con una apertura paulatina de las espitas en 400 mil barriles diarios cada mes.
La recuperación de la demanda se ha ralentizado debido al efecto de la variante delta del coronavirus en algunas grandes economías, como China, Japón y la Unión Europea (UE).
El pesimismo sobre una rápida recuperación desencadenó fuertes bajadas antes de que el corte de más del 90 % de la actividad en las plataformas petrolíferas en el golfo de México, provocado por el paso del huracán Ida, impulsara nuevas subidas de precios.
Después de que Ida dejara atrás el golfo de México, el barril del petróleo intermedio de Texas (WTI) bajó un 1,02 % ayer martes, hasta terminar la sesión en Nueva York a 68,50 dólares, mientras que el del Brent concluyó en Londres a 72,96 dólares, un 0,45 % más que el lunes.
Así las cosas, la OPEP analizará en una videoconferencia, cuyo comienzo está convocado para las 15.00 GMT, si la vuelta al funcionamiento de las plataformas en el golfo de México unido a una renqueante recuperación puede hacer bajar de nuevo los precios debido a un exceso de oferta.
La OPEP y su aliados, conocidos como OPEP+, decidieron el pasado julio devolver de forma paulatina al mercado, entre agosto de 2021 y septiembre de 2022, los 5,8 millones de barriles diarios (mbd) que todavía quedaban fuera del mercado por el gran recorte aplicado el año pasado para hacer frente al hundimiento de la demanda por la pandemia.
Esta estrategia se ajusta a las previsiones de la Organización de Países Exportadores de Petróleo (OPEP), según las cuales el consumo de «oro negro» del planeta mediará los 96,6 mbd en todo 2021, es decir, 6 mbd más que el año pasado.
El análisis de ING previo al encuentro señala que el Comité Técnico de la OPEP espera que «el mercado mundial del petróleo se mantenga en déficit durante el resto de este año», esto es, que la demanda supere de facto a la producción.
«Sin embargo, sus cifras sugieren que el mercado volverá a tener un superávit bastante grande el próximo año», agregan los analistas de ING.
En ese sentido, existe la preocupación de que la expansión de la variante delta del coronavirus, más contagiosa que las demás cepas detectadas hasta ahora, pueda lastrar el consumo energético, una visión reforzada el martes por nuevos datos de China que confirman la desaceleración de la economía por el impacto de la mutación.
Los problemas globales en las cadenas de suministros y el aumento de la inflación también alimentan los temores a que la recuperación de la demanda de crudo sea más lenta de lo previsto.
Presiones de Washington
Si bien esos datos podrían favorecer un ajuste a la baja de los niveles de producción de la OPEP+, por otro lado está el llamamiento de Washington a los productores para que, por el contrario, abran aún más los grifos.
La reunión mañana de los ministros de la alianza será la primera después de que la Casa Blanca contactara a mediados de agosto a Arabia Saudí y otros miembros de la OPEP+ para decirles que considera insuficientes los aumentos de producción acordados.
Tras desplomarse en 2020, el precio de la gasolina ha subido más del 40 % este año en Estados Unidos, y el Gobierno del demócrata Joe Biden teme que el encarecimiento de los combustibles frene la recuperación económica.
Los analistas consideran que ante esta mezcla de datos lo más probable es que la OPEP apueste por la continuidad y siga adelante, por el momento, con el previsto aumento de producción escalonado, de 400.000 barriles diarios por mes.
Por: Agencia
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