Un cohete chino que está fuera de control debe volver este fin de semana a la atmósfera terrestre, con un riesgo mínimo, aunque no nulo, de causar daños en la Tierra, según China y varios expertos.
El país asiático puso en órbita el 29 de abril el primer módulo de su estación espacial, gracias al cohete portador Long March 5B, el más potente e imponente lanzador chino.
Este cohete, actualmente en órbita, debe regresar a la Tierra. Está perdiendo gradualmente altitud y el punto de impacto de su caída sigue siendo difícil de prever por el momento.
Según las últimas estimaciones del Departamento de Defensa estadounidense, la entrada en la atmósfera debería ocurrir hacia las 23H00 GMT del sábado.
Pero esta previsión tiene un importante margen de error de nueve horas. Esa brecha debe afinarse a medida que el cohete se acerca.
Tras un largo silencio de las autoridades espaciales y diplomáticas chinas, Pekín reaccionó finalmente el viernes.
“La mayoría de los componentes (del cohete) se quemarán y destruirán al entrar en la atmósfera”, aseguró el portavoz del ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores, Wang Wenbin.
“La probabilidad de causar daños a las actividades aéreas o (a las personas, construcciones) en tierra es extremadamente baja”, afirmó durante una conferencia de prensa.
Probabilidades del impacto
Los medios de comunicación chinos daban este sábado una cobertura mínima del acontecimiento, y se limitaban a reproducir las palabras del portavoz de la diplomacia.
Aunque partes del cohete queden intactas tras su entrada en la atmósfera, hay grandes posibilidades de que se destruyan en el mar porque el 70 % del planeta es agua. Pero podrían también estrellarse en una zona habitada o en una embarcación.
“Esperamos que aterricen en un lugar donde no hagan daño a nadie”, declaró el viernes Mike Howard, portavoz del Departamento de Defensa de Estados Unidos, subrayando que su país seguía de cerca la trayectoria del cohete.
El secretario de Defensa, Lloyd Austin, aseguró el pasado jueves que su país no tiene ninguna intención de destruir la nave china. Pero insinuó que China no planificó con suficiente cuidado su lanzamiento.
Según varios expertos entrevistados por la AFP, existe el riesgo de que restos del vehículo de lanzamiento pesado toquen una zona habitada, pero es poco probable.
“Dado el tamaño del objeto, es inevitable que quedan grandes trozos”, afirmó Florent Delefie, astrónomo del Observatorio de Paris-PSL.
Pero la probabilidad de un impacto en una zona habitada es “mínima, probablemente menos de una en un millón”, asegura Nicolas Bobrinsky, jefe del departamento de Ingeniería e Innovación de la Agencia Espacial Europea (ESA).
“Trozos metálicos”
“No hay necesidad de preocuparse demasiado”, afirmó Jonathan McDowell, astrónomo del Centro Harvard-Smithsonian de Astrofísica, en Estados Unidos.
“Pero el hecho de que una tonelada de trozos metálicos caiga sobre la Tierra a cientos de km/h no es una buena práctica, y China debería revisar el diseño de las misiones Long March 5B para evitar esto”, agregó.
En 2020, desechos de otro cohete Long March se estrellaron sobre aldeas de Costa de Marfil, provocando daños, pero sin dejar heridas.
El laboratorio espacial Tiangong-1 se desintegró al reingresar a la atmósfera en 2018, dos años después de dejar de funcionar, aunque las autoridades chinas negaron haber perdido el control de la nave.
China ha invertido desde hace varias décadas miles de millones de dólares en su programa espacial.
El gigante asiático envió a su primer astronauta al espacio en 2003. Una sonda china se posó en el lado oculto de la Luna en 2019, una primicia mundial.
El año pasado, trajo muestras de la Luna y terminó Beidu, su sistema de navegación por satélite (competidor del GPS estadounidense).
Y en las próximas semanas, China prevé posar un pequeño robot con ruedas en Marte. Además la agencia espacial china anunció su intención de construir una base lunar con Rusia.
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